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Pandemic could cause deep, uneven recession, group predicts

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first_imgMar 22, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – An influenza pandemic as severe as the great flu of 1918 could cost the United States $683 billion and plunge the American economy into the second-deepest recession since World War II, a nonprofit health advocacy group warned today.If rates of illness and death matched those of 1918—when one third of the population fell ill and 2.5% of those who were sickened died—US production of goods and services could shrink 5.5% in a year, according to an analysis released by the Trust for America’s Health (TFAH).But the pain would not be spread evenly across the country. States whose economies depend on tourism and entertainment would be hit hardest, with losses as large as 8% of their economic production, the group said. But areas that depend on other sectors—from agriculture and finance to real estate and government—might hold their losses to half that much.”Businesses, governments, schools and other sectors could all face serious disruptions,” said Jeff Levi, PhD, executive director of the TFAH, a nonpartisan group that has published several reports on pandemic preparedness.While the analysis released today focuses on the impact of a pandemic on the US economy, the consequences would ripple worldwide, Levi said in a briefing for reporters: “In today’s global economy, almost every aspect of commerce relies directly or indirectly on an interconnected, worldwide network of workers, products and services. A major shock to this network could have serious negative consequences on trade and commerce worldwide.”The TFAH report, “Pandemic Flu and Potential for U.S. Economic Recession,” is the latest in a string of analyses that have attempted to forecast the potential economic impact of a pandemic as severe as the 1918 onslaught.In December 2005, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that a 1918-like pandemic would cut US gross domestic product (GDP) by 5% in a year, while a milder pandemic similar to the worldwide flu of 1968 would shrink the GDP 1.5%.A team from the Australian National University has set the impact of what they call an “ultra” pandemic at 5.5% of GDP in a year, while an analysis by BMO Nesbitt Burns Cooper, a brokerage firm, has forecast a loss of up to 6%.Similar analyses have sought to assess the potential impact on other parts of the world and on the globe as a whole. In November 2005, the Asian Development Bank predicted a loss of 2.3% to 6.5% of GDP just in Asia.In February 2006, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the “economic impact is likely to be significant,” without assigning percentage estimates of potential losses, and added, “A severe pandemic could pose risks to the global financial system.” And last winter, World Bank economists predicted a worst-case scenario of a 4.8% decline in global GDP and worldwide losses of up to $1.5 trillion.”What we do know is that it is highly likely that during the peak of a pandemic, even if the mortality rate is low, you are going to have a lot of people not coming to work because they or family members are sick. This will lead to supply side disruptions,” Charles Blitzer of the IMF told CIDRAP News today. “On the demand side, many people will not go out and expose themselves, leading to less demand for nonessentials,” said Blitzer, assistant director in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department and coauthor of the Fund’s pandemic-impact report.”Quite a sharp drop in economic activity is likely during the peak of the pandemic, much bigger than the 5 to 6% annual average declines the studies have estimated,” he added. “In all likelihood, once the pandemic wave passes, people will return to work and also catch up with some of their postponed purchases, leading to a spike up in economic activity.”The analysis released today relies on the economic models and assumptions made by the Congressional Budget Office, the Australian National University, and BMO Nesbitt Burns Cooper. It combines predictions of death rates and loss of productivity—due to workers’ illness, family members’ illness, and fear of getting sick—with estimates of the impact on 20 different business sectors.Demand for arts, entertainment, and recreation is likely to drop by 80%, the report estimates, compared with 67% for transportation and warehousing and 10% for agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, finance, and education.It is the first pandemic economic forecast to break down potential impact by state, Levi said.The hardest-hit states are likely to be those whose economies rely on entertainment, tourism, and food service, the report says. Entertainment mecca Nevada would fare the worst, losing 8% of its GDP and $9 billion in a single year. Nevada would be closely followed by other high-tourism states: Hawaii (6.6% loss, $3.6 billion), Alaska (6.59% loss, $2.6 billion), Wyoming (6.4% loss, $1.7 billion), and Nebraska (6.22% loss, $4.4 billion).The states at the lowest risk of major losses would be those with diverse economies, as well as those that depend on the services most likely to be in use during a pandemic, such as healthcare and government. Governments are busier during crises, Levi said, and use of healthcare is likely to rise during a pandemic, even though healthcare workers would be at higher risk of contracting the flu and missing work.Leading the list of least-impacted places is Washington, DC, which would risk 4.62% of its GDP and lose potentially $3.8 billion. Close behind come Maryland (5.09% loss, $12.5 billion), Virginia (5.13% loss, $18.1 billion), New York (5.2% loss, $49.8 billion), and Massachusetts (5.2% loss, $16.9 billion).The TFAH recommends a menu of actions to mitigate a pandemic’s potential economic impact, from improving state pandemic plans to encouraging continuity planning for business sectors as well as individual businesses. It will be particularly important to address the healthcare needs of the underinsured and uninsured who may forgo healthcare or come to work while ill, perhaps by creating a temporary entitlement such as a national “emergency health benefit,” the group says.See also:TFAH statement with link to full report and related materialhttp://healthyamericans.org/reports/flurecession/last_img read more

Arsenal defender David Luiz open to return to Brazil in the future

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first_img Emery reacts to Arsenal’s 1-0 loss to Sheffield UnitedTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Play VideoLoaded: 0%0:00Progress: 0%PlayMuteCurrent Time 0:00/Duration Time 6:38FullscreenEmery reacts to Arsenal’s 1-0 loss to Sheffield Unitedhttps://metro.co.uk/video/emery-reacts-arsenals-1-0-loss-sheffield-united-2032306/This is a modal window.Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window.TextColorWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyOpaqueSemi-TransparentTransparentWindowColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyTransparentSemi-TransparentOpaqueFont Size50%75%100%125%150%175%200%300%400%Text Edge StyleNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDropshadowFont FamilyProportional Sans-SerifMonospace Sans-SerifProportional SerifMonospace SerifCasualScriptSmall CapsReset restore all settings to the default valuesDoneClose Modal DialogEnd of dialog window.MORE: David Luiz confident Unai Emery will improve Arsenal’s leaky defenceMORE: David Luiz insists Arsenal can challenge for the Premier League title this season Luiz started his playing career in his home country of Brazil (Picture: AP)David Luiz is open to a return to Brazil, but insisted he has no plans to leave Arsenal.The centre-back only joined Arsenal from Chelsea during the summer transfer window, but has hardly been an instant hit with the Emirates faithful.At 32 years old, Luiz is believed to be a short-term solution to Arsenal’s defensive woes and was asked if he had any desire to return to Brazil.‘I, today, have no such plan. I don’t have that as a goal. But we never know, football goes very fast,’ David Luiz told ESPN Brasil.ADVERTISEMENT Coral BarryThursday 24 Oct 2019 1:56 pmShare this article via facebookShare this article via twitterShare this article via messengerShare this with Share this article via emailShare this article via flipboardCopy link4.9kShares Luiz only joined Arsenal last summer (Picture: Getty)‘What makes me happy is to see the quality of Brazilian football. You see Jorge Jesus with Flamengo, and the great players like Felipe, Rafinha, Gerson, Gabigol, who’s back shining as he always shone at first at Santos.AdvertisementAdvertisement‘Then you see Renato’s Grêmio, who have been playing great football for many years.’More: FootballRio Ferdinand urges Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to drop Manchester United starChelsea defender Fikayo Tomori reveals why he made U-turn over transfer deadline day moveMikel Arteta rates Thomas Partey’s chances of making his Arsenal debut vs Man City‘So without a doubt, I’m happy for our football,’ he continued.‘I am glad about the ever-growing quality. I’m sincere to say that today I don’t have this idea.‘I have a two-year contract with Arsenal. Advertisement Arsenal defender David Luiz open to return to Brazil in the future Luiz has struggled for consistency at Arsenal (Picture: Reuters)‘I have my ambitions and goals here with Arsenal, so I came here. But we never know in the future.’Luiz started his playing career in Brazil, playing at youth level for Sao Paulo and Vitoria, before joining Benfica in 2007.Arsenal are in the midst of a difficult spell of form after defeat to Sheffield United on Monday, but the Gunners are fifth in the Premier League, just two points off fourth spot. Comment Advertisementlast_img read more

Cost of Brisbane land lots fall 14pc as blocks shrink across the capital

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first_img6 & 8 Nabeel Place, Calamvale, was part of a 1,400sq m site that was split and re-split to see the development land gross profit of $500,000.THE cost of residential land in Brisbane fell a massive 14 per cent last year with lots on the Gold Coast now more expensive than the Queensland capital. But the devil’s in the detail.New data by Oliver Hume found buying a block in Brisbane set buyers back $358,500 at the end of last year – a median price drop of 14 per cent in just 12 months.Land on the Gold Coast was $25,700 more expensive than Brisbane, according to the latest Oliver Hume Quarterly Market Insights, with the glitter strip pulling off an 8 per cent rise in median lot price to $384,200.But Oliver Hume senior research analyst Amanda Bittenbinder said Brisbane’s massive median price decrease was not because of a struggling market but the type of blocks that were coming to market.“The Brisbane market is shifting towards smaller lot sizes, due to land availability and affordability,” she told The Courier-Mail.“Our data shows that 48 per cent of project land sales in Brisbane over Q4 2017 were between 301-400sq m whereas the Gold Coast recorded 52 per cent of sales over 500sq m.”She said the Gold Coast had a higher median lot size than Brisbane.Broken down, the data showed “the rate per sqm in Brisbane was $899/sq m in Q4, whereas the Gold Coast recorded $513/sq m – that’s a difference of $386 per sq m”.In the December quarter alone, 1,956 lots were sold in South East Queensland, a fall of 5.5 per cent that had more to do with stock availability than demand.Agent Tom Zhang of Yong Real Estate said demand was outstripping supply in Brisbane.One of his recent sales included 6 and 8 Nabeel Place, Calamvale, which was part of a larger 1,400sq m block that a developer had bought for $1.1m.“A developer bought it, they subdivided the rear 800sq m out and further subdivided that into two 400sq m blocks. For 400sq m that was selling for over $400,000 each. Those two blocks at the back sold for $800,000 and he still has the front house that will sell for more than $800,000. So his total income of over $1.6m minus development costs still ends up a fantastic return in a short period of time.” 122 Roscommon Road, Boondall, was split in two with each block on the market for over $350,000.He said “small to medium developers are so hungry for this type of product”.More from newsParks and wildlife the new lust-haves post coronavirus20 hours agoNoosa’s best beachfront penthouse is about to hit the market20 hours ago“It’s easy to sell the land. The normal homebuyer can’t afford big blocks but a 400sq m block they might be able to. The worry now is the low supply of empty blocks of land in Brisbane and in the southern suburbs like Sunnybank and Calamvale.”Redland – which includes mainland suburbs like Capalaba and Alexandra Hills as well as island suburbs like North Stradbroke and Coochiemudlo Island – had SEQ’s third highest block cost. Its median land lot was $312,000, a figure that had dropped 3 per cent last year.Popular Moreton Bay – which covers a large area including Caboolture and Redcliffe – saw a 4 per cent fall to $238,000, while the second cheapest land lots in SEQ came out of Logan where the median was holding steady at $230,475.The cheapest place to buy land in the region was Ipswich ($199,500), though that’s changing rapidly with the area posting the second highest cost increase last year (4 per cent).Despite low retail land supply and strengthening demand, the median land lot price in Queensland was fell slightly to $260,500, the Oliver Hume report said – mostly because of shrinking block sizes. Median Retail Lot Price: Moreton Bay $238,000 (-4%)Redland $312,000 (-3%)Logan $230,475 (0%)Brisbane $358,500 (-14%)Ipswich $199,500 (4%)Gold Coast $384,200 (8%) (Source: Oliver Hume) FOLLOW SOPHIE FOSTER ON FACEBOOKlast_img read more

Lithuanian pension funds rebound from dismal third quarter

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first_imgSince the end of 2014, the numbers of second-pillar providers has shrunk from eight to six, and the number of funds from 26 to 21 following DNB’s takeover of two funds earlier run by ERGO, and subsequently INVL Asset Management consolidating and rebranding its MP Pensions Baltic and Finasta funds.Over the year, membership of the second pillar grew by 4.9% to 1.21m and assets by 13.5% to €2.1bn.Of the €252m asset increase, some €137m came from the 2% base contribution, €46.5m from investment activities, €37m from the additional budget contribution (at 1% of average gross annual wages) and €31.5m from the 1% in members’ additional contributions.In 2016-19, assets will get a further boost as the additional budget and members’ contributions both rise to 2%.In the smaller third pillar, returns averaged 4.12% in the fourth quarter and 3.62% for the year, and, as was the case with the second-pillar funds, higher equity levels generated superior returns.The five high-risk funds averaged 4.85% for 2015 and the four medium-risk ones 3.33%, while the conservative funds returned 1.66%.There was a wider performance spread than in the second pillar, with two medium-risk funds and one conservative plan generating negative returns.Membership of the third pillar grew by 18.5% to 47,333, and assets by 7.3% to €61.5m. A strong fourth-quarter performance enabled Lithuania’s pension funds to offset the third quarter’s dismal returns and generate investment growth in 2015.According to data from the Bank of Lithuania (BoL), the sector’s regulator, nominal returns for the voluntary second-pillar funds averaged 3.5% in the fourth quarter and 3.61% for the full year, compared with 7.78% in 2014.All four classes of second-pillar fund produced 12-month positive returns in 2015.The four high-risk funds, with up to 100% invested in equities, generated the best average result, of 6.64%, followed by the seven medium-risk funds (with equity limits of 50-70%) at 3.63%, the four low-risk funds with 25-30% equity investment at 3.08% and the six conservative bond funds at 1.24%.last_img read more

Franbo Lines Buys Supramax from Taiwan Navigation

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first_imgTaiwanese shipping company Franbo Lines Corp has inked a contract to buy a 51,000 dwt bulk carrier from compatriot company Taiwan Navigation. Scheduled to be delivered by the end of November 2017, the unnamed bulker will become the company’s largest ship.Franbo Lines will pay USD 8.55 million for the 15-year-old Supramax which is expected to increase the company’s profit margins.Although its name was not disclosed, the ship is likely to be the 51,000 dwt Tai Harvest. Built at Oshima shipyard in Japan in 2002, Tai Harvest was sold by Taiwan Navigation to an unknown party in late September, VesselsValue’s data shows.The newest purchase brings Franbo Lines’ fleet to twelve vessels ranging from 7,000 dwt to 46,500 dwt.World Maritime News Stafflast_img read more

Chart opens LNG station for Bisek-Asfalt in Poland

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first_imgImage courtesy of ChartU.S. LNG equipment maker Chart Industries said its unit, Chart Ferox, has opened an LNG vehicle fueling station in Kostomloty, Poland. The station has been engineered and built by Chart Ferox for Bisek-Asfalt that owns and will also operate the facility.It will service Bisek-Asfalt’s own fleet, as well as other companies in the region, Chart said in its statement.Commenting during the opening of the LNG fueling station, Bisek-Asfalt’s chairman Michal Bisek, noted the company intends to expand its fleet of LNG trucks to 50 within the next 12 months.It was also noted that Chart has been selected by the company for the construction of the next LNG facility.Bisek-Asfalt recently signed a deal with its compatriot Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG) for the delivery over 1,000 tons of LNG as fuel for its current fleet. The two companies also agreed to develop a new LNG station. PGNiG will supply LNG from the President Lech Kaczyński LNG terminal in Świnoujście.last_img read more

Lambunao family battling virus logs 7th COVID case

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first_img* 70-year-old female (region’s Patient No. 29) This family member, a 33-year-old female, isthe town’s and her family’s seventh case. * 41-year-old male (region’s Patient No. 28) She is also Western Visayas’ latest (Patient No. 58), according to theDepartment of Health (DOH). These family members are currently on homequarantine. Theirs is a case of home virus transmission. Lambunao newest COVID-19 case is Iloiloprovince’s 19th case – and one of three new cases in the region yesterday. The other cases in this Lambunao family werethe following: * Negros Occ. – four People cancatch COVID-19 from others who have the virus. The disease can spread fromperson to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth which are spreadwhen a person with COVID-19 coughs or exhales. * Iloilo province – 19 * 44-year-old female (region’s Patient No. 25) Lambunao’s first COVID-19 case was a70-year-old male. Also this region’s Patient No. 16, he died. * Iloilo City – seven/PN ILOILO – Another family member of Lambunao’sfirst confirmed case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) tested positive forthe SARS-CoV-2 virus. Here’s the breakdown of Region 6’s COVID-19cases as of April 24: The two other new cases were a 38-year-oldmale from Silay City, Negros Occidental (region’s Patient No. 56) and a50-year-old male from Candoni, Negros Occidental (region’s Patient No. 57). * Antique – nine These recoveries brought to 14 the totalnumber of Region 6 patients who overcame the illness. * Aklan – six * 39-year-old female (region’s Patient No. 27) * 48-year-old female (region’s Patient No. 30) * Capiz – five * Guimaras – zero The woman , not showing symptoms of COVID-19such as fever and cough, is on home quarantine, said Dr. Renilyn Reyes, head ofDOH Region 6’s public health program development cluster chief . DOH-6 also reported three patients who haverecovered. These were Patient No. 17 (a 44-year-old male from Jaro, IloiloCity), Patient No. 24 (a 66-year-old female from Kalibo, Aklan) and Patient No.32 (a 40-year-old male from Kalibo, Aklan). * Bacolod City – eight Thesedroplets also land on objects and surfaces around the person. Other people thencatch COVID-19 by touching these objects or surfaces, then touching their eyes,nose or mouth. last_img read more

Aurora man arrested on child pornography charges

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first_imgAURORA, Ind. — An Aurora man has been arrested after police found child pornography on a laptop.According to police, Wayne D. Brown, 47, is facing charges of Attempted Child Exploitation and Possession of Child Pornography.Police say Parole officers made a surprise visit to Brown’s residence, and during the visit found a laptop in Brown’s possession downloading child pornography.Bond has been set at $500,000.last_img

Bloomington brings IMCA RaceSaver Sprints to Indiana

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first_imgBLOOMINGTON, Ind. (Jan. 22) – The 2015 season will be the first for IMCA and RaceSaver at a track with an already long and distinguished Sprint Car history. Bloomington Speedway features the IMCA Eagle Motor Sports RaceSaver Sprint Car division on Friday programs beginning April 17. IMCA Speedway Motors Weekly Racing National, Allstar Performance State and local track points will be awarded through season championship night on Aug. 21. Weekly features will pay $600 to win and a minimum of $150 to start.“I like the total package of IMCA and RaceSaver,” explained third-year General Manager Kris Kirchner. “I come from the 410 (sprint car) world and know that people who want to get into that have to spend a lot of money.”“I’ve heard more and more about RaceSaver and know that a guy can get into the class, race and not be broke at the end of the day,” he added.Dan Roberts, a co-owner of the ¼-mile, high-banked clay oval located in south central Indiana, suggested track officials look into RaceSaver.“The RaceSaver engine package is much more affordable for the average person. The equation of the person driving the car is more important than how much money they spent,” Kirchner said. “Everything I’ve learned about RaceSaver is that the cars are affordable and reliable.” Bloomington hosted its first auto races in 1923 and now boasts grandstand seating for 3,500.IMCA last sanctioned a Sprint Car event in Indiana in the early 1970s.“Bloomington Speedway is a top-notch facility and a perfect weekly home for IMCA RaceSaver Sprint Cars,” said Jim Stannard, director of track relations for IMCA. “We look forward to partnering with Bloomington and helping this division grow.”last_img read more

Easter signs new Harlequins contract

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first_imgNick Easter has signed a new three-year contract with Harlequins.The England international, 33, has made 162 appearances and scored 42 tries for the club, and has played 47 times for his country.He has been in excellent form recently, producing a man-of-the-match display in Saturday’s victory over London Irish.AdChoices广告“I’m delighted to have re-signed with Harlequins,” said Easter.“I’m looking forward to contributing to the ongoing success of the team and to winning more silverware for the club and its supporters.”Quins director of rugby Conor O’Shea said: “I’m sure everyone involved with the club will be delighted that Nick has signed for another three years.“Having come to professional rugby later than others, and given the condition he keeps himself in, we believe he will play at the highest level for years to come.”Follow West London Sport on TwitterFind us on Facebooklast_img read more